Calibration and Validation of a Proposed Informal Settlement Growth Model

Rapid growth of informal settlements in developing countries constitutes one of the most intriguing forms of urbanization. However, factors and theories underpinning this rapid and prevalent dynamic of informal settlements are often restricted to the descriptive phase. Limited studies have been undertaken to effectively demonstrate how these factors and theories can be incorporated into a framework to simulate and model the dynamic expansion of informal settlements. This paper presents how Geographic Information Systems and Cellular Automata are integrated to propose an Informal Settlement Growth Model (ISGM). The proposed ISGM is a transparent and flexible program written is Visual Basic and which uses Idrisi for output display. Specifically, the model framework is discussed, the results of different calibrations of the proposed model on the case study (Yaoundé, Cameroon) are presented, and the model performance is evaluated. The application of the proposed ISGM on Yaoundé indicates that the model has the potential to improve the urban planning and decision-making processes in developing countries cities.